Increasing claims appearing of green shoots in the UK economy – the latest today for the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, a respected forecasting organisation. So was I wrong when I said at the first Business and Politics Live event at the end of March that things were going to get much worse?

Maybe – but maybe not. What we’re seeing is the end of destocking – carmakers and others have sold all their unsold stocks and resuming production. But they won’t go back to the output levels pre-credit crunch any time soon. Meanwhile unemployment will continute rising for at least another year, and that will put a lid on consumer spending.

And while inquiries about new homes are rising, they’re still tiny in comparison with previous levels.

Some noted commentators are already reversing their gloomy stances. Not me yet, though – I’ll explain more at the next Business and Politics live on 30th June.

John Willman is an award winning journalist. An economic commentator, author and former Associate Editor of the Financial Times. For more information or to contact John Willman, click here.

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